EP 184: The Biggest Investing Lessons Of 2024 To Take Into 2025 With Michael Batnick

by Peter Lazaroff | Dec 25, 2024 | Podcast

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In this episode of The Long-Term Investor, I sit down with Michael Batnick, Managing Partner at Ritholtz Wealth Management, co-host of Animal Spirits and The Compound and Friends. Michael and his team are prolific content creators known for their consistent market insights that deliver tons of value while also making for fun conversation.

We dive into the major themes and headlines of 2024, exploring interest rates, the Fed’s impact, tech market concentration, Bitcoin ETFs, and where markets might be headed in 2025. Along the way, Michael shares his signature sharp takes, relatable stories, and perspectives on why individual stock picking isn’t worth the hype—but why he still does it for fun.

Whether you’re an advisor looking for context to share with clients or a DIY investor curious about 2024’s big moments, this episode has you covered.

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Predictions: A Fun Reminder That No One Can Predict the Future (0:42)

Michael has published annual predictions the past few years for four main reasons:

It’s fun. Let’s be honest—markets can be dry at times, and adding a little entertainment into the mix keeps things engaging. Predictions aren’t about getting it right; they’re about sparking thought and conversation.
Accountability. Putting predictions out there is a way of holding himself accountable. If he gets something wildly wrong, it’s a humbling reminder of how little we actually know about the future.
A Reminder of the Impossible. Michael sees predictions as a way to emphasize just how unpredictable the markets really are. “Predicting the future is impossible,” he said. Even seasoned professionals can’t do it with consistency, and his predictions highlight that reality.
Content is king. At the end of the day, Michael’s job involves creating content—whether it’s for his firm, his podcasts, or his audience. Annual predictions make for great conversation starters, give him something to reflect on throughout the year, and resonate with listeners who are always curious about what’s next.

“Would I do this if I weren’t in the industry, creating content? Certainly not,” he admits. And that’s the point. Predictions aren’t about actionable advice—they’re about perspective.

The Evolving Role of Advisors: From Investing to Planning (2:09)

Twenty years ago, financial advisors were laser-focused on one thing: investments. Building portfolios, picking stocks, and trying to outperform the market dominated the profession. Today, the role of advisors has fundamentally changed, and as Michael points out, it’s for the better.

The number of people pursuing CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst) designations—historically tied to investment management—has flipped with those pursuing CFP (Certified Financial Planner) credentials. This shift reflects a growing focus on comprehensive financial planning rather than trying to deliver alpha (market-beating returns).

And as Michael put it, the old days of “selling alpha” are largely over—if they were ever really here in the first place.

“The days of delivering alpha are a thing of the past,” Michael said. “At least for most advisors. If we’re honest, there was a time when it was possible, but for the vast majority of investors today, trying to beat the market just isn’t the point anymore.”

Instead, the value that advisors deliver is far more holistic:

Helping clients define and achieve their goals. Whether it’s saving for retirement, funding a child’s education, or living a meaningful lifestyle, the role of an advisor is to answer the critical question: “Am I going to be able to do the things I want to do with my money?”
Implementing smart strategies. This includes everything from portfolio construction to tax planning to risk management—making sure clients are positioned for success.

But even though investing is now just one component of an advisor’s value, it doesn’t mean that context and understanding the markets have become irrelevant. As I told Michael, I believe there’s real value in helping clients put what’s happening into perspective. It’s not about timing the market or predicting every move; it’s about providing context that helps clients stay grounded. A good advisor can connect today’s headlines to the bigger picture and remind clients that market uncertainty is nothing new.

Interest Rates: How the Fed Shaped 2024 (4:27)

At the start of 2024, the consensus was clear: the Fed would cut rates—a lot. Analysts, economists, and market watchers were pricing in as many as six or seven rate cuts over the course of the year. But as January rolled around, the Federal Reserve had other ideas.

“Hold your horses,” they effectively said. Inflation, while lower, wasn’t quite where they wanted it to be. Instead of the dovish cuts many were expecting, we saw bond yields rise, bond prices fall, and a whole lot of investors revisiting their expectations.

When Michael and I discussed this moment, we couldn’t help but reflect on the unusual period we’d just come out of—the zero-interest-rate environment that dominated the post-2008 era and shaped investor expectations for well over a decade.

“I still feel like people are anchored to that zero-rate period,” I told Michael. “And I just don’t see interest rates settling back where people are anchored.”

Michael agreed but offered an interesting take: while the Fed played a central role in the narrative, consumers were arguably the bigger driver of what happened in 2024.

“Going into 2022, the consensus was that the Fed was going to manufacture a recession,” Michael said. “Despite their best efforts, they weren’t able to do it because we were flush with cash. And in that scenario, we’re not going to not spend.”

In other words, the Fed did what they could—jacked up rates, cooled inflation, and tried to slow the economy—but consumers, backed by strong balance sheets and pandemic-era savings, proved remarkably resilient.

We looked back at 2022 as a reminder of how tough things had been:

Bonds failed to provide ballast in a 60/40 portfolio.
Stocks, especially tech, got crushed.
The market environment was full of fear.

But by October 2022, markets had bottomed, and heading into 2023, everyone was still preparing for a recession that never came. “I was in a room full of investors,” Michael said, “and I asked, ‘Who thinks we’ve seen the bottom?’ Nobody raised their hand. Then I asked, ‘Who thinks there’s going to be a recession next year?’ Every single hand went up.”

And what happened? Tech stocks took off, fueled by AI enthusiasm and the emergence of tools like ChatGPT. The facts changed, the narrative shifted, and what was supposed to be a “bad year” turned into a strong recovery.

By the time 2024 rolled around, people were breathing a sigh of relief. “We landed the plane,” Michael said. But he gave more credit to consumers than to the Fed. “I don’t think the Fed landed the plane. I think we didn’t crash despite their best efforts.”

Looking at interest rates today, we both agreed that anchoring to the zero-rate period doesn’t make much sense. That was an anomaly, not the norm. But the long-term trajectory of interest rates remains a big question.

For Michael, the more interesting story is how rates are impacting the housing market. “If you don’t own a home, you’re upset,” he said. “If you do own a home, you probably don’t care unless you’re looking to move.” Higher rates have frozen much of the housing market, leaving buyers and sellers stuck on the sidelines.

From an investor’s perspective, this shift in rates has forced people to recalibrate. When the risk-free rate (U.S. Treasury yields) is sitting above 4%, it changes the conversation about risk and reward. For many investors, that guaranteed return is hard to ignore—especially after a decade of earning next to nothing on cash.

As we wrapped up this part of the conversation, I couldn’t help but reflect on the Fed’s performance over the past few years. Did they raise rates too late? Did they keep them high for too long?

Michael’s take was clear: “I don’t think history will be too kind to them. They were very late to raise rates when inflation was more than transitory, and they stayed high for longer than necessary. It’s easy to be an armchair quarterback, but no, I don’t think they did a great job.”

Still, as I pointed out, the Fed’s job is incredibly difficult, and in the context of a 20-year period, being “six months late” might not seem like such a failure.

At the end of the day, it’s a reminder that markets are messy, interest rates are unpredictable, and even the Fed—armed with the best tools and data—can’t perfectly navigate every twist and turn.

For investors, the takeaway is simple:

Expect uncertainty. Rates will go up, they’ll come down, and predicting the exact trajectory is a fool’s game.
Focus on what you can control. Stick to your long-term plan, stay diversified, and avoid the temptation to overreact to short-term shifts.

Even the Federal Reserve, with all its tools and data, struggles to predict interest rates with precision. Markets move based on expectations, and those expectations can shift quickly as new data comes in. For long-term investors, obsessing over the exact trajectory of interest rates can be counterproductive.

Tech Dominance, NVIDIA’s Rise, and the Reality of Stock Picking (10:34)

NVIDIA’s meteoric rise in 2024, driven by the AI boom, captured headlines and investor imaginations alike. With AI-powered enthusiasm fueling markets, I asked Michael whether he’d buy NVIDIA today if he had cash on hand. His answer was refreshingly direct: “No.”

“If you’re an investor, you already own NVIDIA,” Michael pointed out. “If you hold an S&P 500 fund, you’ve benefited from its rise without needing to bet on it directly.”

This led us to a broader conversation about tech concentration. The “Magnificent Seven”—tech giants like NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, and Alphabet—have dominated returns over the past two years, and that dominance can make investors uneasy. But Michael explained that concentration is simply a natural feature of bull markets.

“These companies earn a huge share of corporate profits,” he said. “There’s no conspiracy. It’s not the Fed propping them up. It’s fundamentals. And unless the rest of the market starts falling apart while big tech keeps climbing—which isn’t happening—there’s no reason to panic.”

That brought us to a familiar temptation for many investors: picking individual stocks. Whether it’s NVIDIA, Tesla, or the next shiny name, stock picking always feels enticing. But as Michael explained, the data tells a sobering story:

Roughly 40% of individual stocks suffer a 70% decline from which they never recover.
4% of stocks account for the majority of market returns over time.
Most individual stocks don’t even beat inflation or Treasury bills in the long run.

Michael knows this better than most—he picks individual stocks in his IRA, but only for entertainment and content. “It’s fun for me,” he admitted. “But I’m under no delusion that I’m going to beat the market. It’s not a core part of my strategy.”

So what should investors do? For those who feel the urge to pick stocks, Michael offered a simple framework:

Treat stock picking like entertainment, not a plan.
Keep it to a small percentage of your portfolio.
Know that the odds are against you, and regret minimization should guide your decisions.

For everyone else, the answer is simpler: own the index, stay diversified, and let the winners come to you. By holding a broad-based fund, you’ll automatically capture companies like NVIDIA without the need to pick them yourself.

As Michael summed up perfectly, “You don’t need to pick the winners to win.”

It’s a timely reminder in an era when big tech stocks dominate headlines and FOMO runs rampant: Investing isn’t about chasing the next big thing. It’s about building a portfolio that lets you win over time.

Bitcoin ETFs and Crypto Adoption (15:40)

When the first spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in early 2024, it marked a turning point for crypto investing. For years, the idea of a Bitcoin ETF was little more than speculation—a “maybe someday” product. But when it finally arrived, the enthusiasm was undeniable.

Michael shared his take on Bitcoin and why this moment wasn’t just inevitable—it was one of his biggest conviction bets ever.

Here’s the twist: Michael doesn’t buy into the grand narratives surrounding Bitcoin. “I don’t believe in Bitcoin as a store of value, I don’t think it’s going to replace the dollar, and I’m not worried about inflation eroding my wealth,” he said. “But here’s what I do believe: they believe.”

For Michael, the story wasn’t about ideology—it was about adoption and supply-demand dynamics. The ETF approval was the catalyst he’d been waiting for. “I thought the ETF passage was inevitable,” he explained. “And I knew it would drive demand. Institutions would come in, retail investors would get easier access, and it would feed on itself.”

The ETF launch raised an important question: Where does Bitcoin go from here?

Michael acknowledged that expectations matter. The ETF approval brought Bitcoin into the mainstream, but it also removed some of the mystique that drove its earlier, more explosive gains. “The ETF was inevitable,” he said. “But now that it’s here, I worry that people are jumping in with unrealistic expectations. The easy money has been made.”

For long-term investors, the takeaway is clear: If you believe in Bitcoin, the ETF provides an easy, accessible way to own it. If you’re skeptical, that’s fine too—crypto isn’t a necessary ingredient for portfolio success.

Diversification vs. U.S. Market Outperformance (23:37)

If there’s one challenge long-term investors face today, it’s this: staying diversified when the U.S. stock market has outperformed everything else for years. It’s tempting to look at the S&P 500’s dominance and ask, Why bother with anything else? But as Michael and I discussed, that kind of thinking can be short-sighted—especially for investors committed to long-term success.

Michael put it bluntly: “Diversification isn’t easy. I believe in it, I believe in cyclicality, but when you look at the last 10 or 15 years, it’s been hard to stick with anything other than U.S. stocks.”

He’s right. The U.S. has been the clear winner for over a decade, delivering returns that have trounced international markets and other asset classes. Investors who stuck with the S&P 500 have looked smart—especially compared to those who maintained a globally diversified portfolio.

But here’s the thing: that outperformance won’t last forever. Markets are cyclical. Valuation spreads between U.S. stocks and the rest of the world continue to widen, creating opportunities for global diversification to eventually pay off.

This isn’t the first time the S&P 500 has dominated—and it won’t be the last. History shows that periods of U.S. outperformance are often followed by stretches where international or other asset classes lead the way.

And let’s not forget: there have been times when the S&P 500 underperformed even the safest assets. Cash beat the S&P 500 from 1929-1943 (15 years), 1966-1982 (17 years), and 2000-2012 (12 years). That would be a very difficult period to stay disciplined through.

This is where diversification comes in. Diversifying across markets and asset classes isn’t about chasing the next winner. It’s about preparing for an uncertain future. It’s about acknowledging that no one—no matter how smart or experienced—knows what the next decade will look like.

For most investors, this is the challenge: sticking to a diversified portfolio when it feels like the U.S. market can do no wrong. The temptation to tilt heavily toward U.S. stocks is strong, but it comes with risks. Betting on a single market—no matter how dominant—leaves investors vulnerable to unexpected shifts.

At the end of the day, diversification is about managing risk and minimizing regret. It’s about ensuring your portfolio is resilient in a variety of scenarios, not just the one where the S&P 500 continues to lead the charge.

As Michael and I agreed, it’s not easy. Diversification means accepting that parts of your portfolio will underperform at times. It requires patience, discipline, and a willingness to look foolish in the short term. But over the long run, it’s one of the smartest things you can do.

If the U.S. continues its outperformance forever? Fine. But if it doesn’t, a diversified portfolio will ensure you’re still positioned to succeed—no matter where the returns come from.

U.S. Presidential Elections (26:15)

Presidential elections reliably send emotions soaring every four years. As Michael put it, “Every four years, people think the world is going to end if their preferred candidate doesn’t win. But here’s the reality: earnings drive the market—not politics.”

This analogy struck a chord: the president is like a baseball manager, but the players on the field matter more. In the markets, those “players” are the companies we invest in—companies like Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon, whose mission is to generate profits no matter who’s in office.

That’s not to say elections have no impact. Some sectors, like healthcare or energy, may see bigger policy shifts depending on the outcome. But for the market as a whole, political uncertainty tends to be noise—something that causes short-term volatility but doesn’t alter the long-term trajectory.

I pointed out that companies don’t stop innovating, selling products, or growing earnings just because an election is happening. “Businesses care about making money,” I said. “They’ll adapt to whatever political environment they’re in, and markets will keep moving forward.”

Still, election years are tough for many investors. The mix of emotional stakes and nonstop media coverage can make it feel like the sky is falling. For anyone feeling nervous about 2025, Michael offered simple, sound advice:

Stick to your plan. Elections are noisy, but they’re not new. Your portfolio is built to weather uncertainty.
Focus on the fundamentals. Companies drive the market—not the president.
Plan for uncertainty. If you’re concerned, make small adjustments, but avoid big, emotional moves.

As Michael summed it up, “The future is uncertain—that’s why we plan.”

Wrapping Up: Predictions, Lessons, and Looking Ahead to 2025 (30:07)

As we wrapped up the conversation, I asked Michael whether he planned to continue his annual predictions for 2025. His answer, while reluctant, was a firm “Yes.”

“It’s a pain,” he admitted with a laugh, “but I’ll do it. It’s what I do.”

And while predictions make for great content—and lively conversation—Michael is the first to point out that no one can see the future. “It’s impossible,” he said earlier in the episode, “but it’s fun. It’s a reminder of how little we know, and that’s valuable in its own way.”

We then shifted to a lighter note: what Michael is looking forward to in 2025—books, movies, TV, and all the entertainment that helps balance out the constant noise of markets and headlines.

“TV is back in a big way,” he said. White Lotus Season 3, Severance Season 2, and a slate of blockbuster movies—another Jurassic Park, a Superman reboot by James Gunn, and the return of Mission Impossible. “It’s all the same stuff,” he joked, “but I’ll take it.”

It was a perfect reminder that, for all the talk of markets, interest rates, and elections, life is about more than portfolios and predictions. At its core, investing is about creating a better life—whether that means financial security, peace of mind, or the freedom to enjoy things like great TV or a night at the movies without worrying about your money.

If you haven’t checked them out yet, both Animal Spirits and The Compound and Friends are worth adding to your rotation. Michael and his co-hosts are masters at breaking down markets, sharing thoughtful insights, and keeping it all entertaining—something I try to emulate here on The Long-Term Investor.

This episode was packed with lessons on markets, behavior, and the value of staying the course. Whether it was Michael’s take on interest rates, tech dominance, or stock-picking temptations, one theme came through loud and clear: investing isn’t about knowing what’s next—it’s about preparing for anything.

Here’s to staying the course in the year ahead.

2024 Financial Events Roadmap

January 2024

1. Federal Reserve Maintains Interest Rates

The Fed held rates steady in its January meeting, citing ongoing concerns about inflation, which remained above target but was showing signs of cooling. Markets reacted positively, anticipating potential rate cuts later in the year.

2. Tech Sector Rally Driven by AI Innovations

Nvidia and Microsoft led a tech rally fueled by breakthroughs in AI development and partnerships, with Nvidia gaining over 25% in January alone. Investor optimism centered on the transformative potential of AI across industries.

3. Energy Prices Surge

Crude oil prices rose sharply in January, surpassing $90 per barrel, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and OPEC production cuts.

4. Tesla Stock Decline

Tesla’s shares fell by 15% in January after weaker-than-expected delivery numbers and concerns over slowing EV demand in China.

February 2024

1. U.S. Jobs Report Surprises to the Upside

The February jobs report showed the U.S. economy added 280,000 jobs, beating expectations and signaling ongoing labor market strength. Wage growth moderated, easing inflation concerns.

2. Sweden Joins NATO

Sweden’s official accession to NATO on February 7 added geopolitical tension, as Russia responded with military posturing in the Baltic Sea. Markets saw brief volatility in European equities.

3. Bitcoin Rally Accelerates

Bitcoin surged past $85,000 in February, fueled by optimism around potential crypto-friendly U.S. regulatory policies under the new administration and increasing institutional adoption.

4. Consumer Spending Remains Resilient

Retail sales data for January (reported in February) exceeded forecasts, showing 1.8% growth month-over-month. Strong spending on durable goods highlighted consumer confidence despite high interest rates.

March 2024

1. Federal Reserve Implements First Rate Cut

In its March meeting, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the first reduction since 2020. Markets rallied on optimism that the Fed would pivot toward a more accommodative stance.

2. Nvidia Hits Record High

Nvidia’s stock surged 40% in March, buoyed by a new product announcement centered on generative AI chips. Analysts raised price targets, fueling further gains.

3. Stock Market Hits New Highs

The S&P 500 reached a record high of 5,245, closing the quarter up 10.6%. Small-cap stocks and value-oriented sectors also gained as market breadth improved.

4. China Announces Economic Stimulus

China unveiled a significant fiscal stimulus package targeting domestic manufacturing and infrastructure, which boosted global commodity prices and lifted Asian markets.

5. Disney’s Strategic Shift

Disney announced plans to invest $12 billion in its cruise division, signaling a pivot to experiential offerings. This drove a modest stock rally in entertainment-related sectors.

April 2024

1. U.S. GDP Growth Exceeds Expectations

The U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of 3.2% in the first quarter, surpassing forecasts and indicating robust economic health. This growth was driven by strong consumer spending and business investments.

2. OPEC Announces Production Cuts

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) declared a reduction in oil production by 1 million barrels per day to stabilize falling oil prices. This decision led to a 10% increase in crude oil prices.

3. Tech Giants Report Record Earnings

Companies like Apple, Amazon, and Google reported record-breaking quarterly earnings, propelled by increased demand for technology services and products. Apple’s revenue reached $120 billion, marking a 15% year-over-year increase.

May 2024

1. Federal Reserve Signals Potential Rate Hikes

The Federal Reserve indicated the possibility of future interest rate hikes to combat rising inflation, causing volatility in equity markets as investors adjusted expectations.

2. U.S.-China Trade Tensions Escalate

The U.S. imposed additional tariffs on Chinese imports worth $50 billion, citing unfair trade practices. China retaliated with tariffs on U.S. goods, intensifying trade tensions and impacting global markets.

3. Cryptocurrency Market Volatility

Bitcoin’s value dropped by 20% in May amid regulatory crackdowns in major economies, leading to increased scrutiny of the cryptocurrency market.

June 2024

1. Global Stock Markets Rally

Global equities experienced a rally, with the MSCI World Index rising by 5% in June, driven by positive economic data and easing inflation concerns.

2. European Central Bank Announces Stimulus Measures

The ECB introduced a new stimulus package, including bond purchases and low-interest loans, to support the Eurozone economy amid slow growth.

3. Emerging Markets Experience Capital Outflows

Emerging markets faced significant capital outflows due to rising U.S. interest rates and a stronger dollar, leading to currency depreciations and stock market declines in these regions.

July 2024

1. Shift from Tech to Small-Cap Stocks

The tech stocks that powered market gains in the first half of the year stumbled in July, while small-cap stocks surged. The Russell 2000 index outperformed the broader market by 8.9 percentage points, its biggest differential since February 2000.

2. Real Estate and Financial Sectors Lead Gains

Investors rotated into sectors like Real Estate and Financials, with Real Estate gaining 7.1% and Financials up 6.3% in July. This shift was driven by expectations of potential interest rate cuts.

August 2024

1. Federal Reserve Signals Rate Cuts

Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced it was time for interest rate cuts, leading to a rally in both bonds and stocks. Short-term rates fell, with the two-year U.S. Treasury yield dropping from 4.29% to 3.91%.

2. U.S. Equities Reach New Highs

The S&P 500 rose 2.4% in August, nearing its all-time high, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fully regained its losses, driven by improved earnings growth and expectations of lower interest rates.

3. Rotation into Defensive Sectors

As momentum waned in AI-leveraged stocks, investors moved into defensive sectors. The Consumer Defensive sector traded at a 15% premium to fair value, indicating potential overvaluation.

September 2024

1. Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rates

The Fed implemented a half-point interest rate cut, the first in several years, reflecting confidence in inflation control. The federal funds rate was set at 4.75% to 5%.

2. U.S. Stock Markets Achieve Record Highs

Following the Fed’s rate cut, the Dow closed at a new historic high of 42,208, and the S&P 500 reached 5,733, driven by positive investor sentiment.

3. Japan’s Economic Growth Revision

Japan’s Q3 GDP growth was revised upward to an annualized 1.2%, driven by higher capital investment and exports, sustaining expectations for a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan.

October 2024

1. U.S. Stock Market Reaches New Highs

The S&P 500 crossed the 6,000 mark for the first time on October 11, driven by strong corporate earnings and investor optimism.

2. Federal Reserve Maintains Interest Rates

The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged in its October meeting, citing stable economic growth and controlled inflation.

3. Tech Sector Layoffs Intensify

Major technology companies, including Meta and Google, announced significant layoffs as part of restructuring efforts and increased automation.

November 2024

1. U.S. Presidential Election Results

Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election, leading to a surge in U.S. equity markets due to anticipated business-friendly policies.

2. Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rates

The Fed implemented a 25 basis point rate cut in November, aiming to support economic growth amid global uncertainties.

3. Cryptocurrency Market Surge

Bitcoin’s value exceeded $100,000, driven by increased institutional adoption and favorable regulatory developments.

December 2024

1. U.S. Inflation Rises

The Consumer Price Index rose by 2.7% in November, marking the second consecutive monthly increase and raising concerns about inflationary pressures.

2. Stock Market Anticipates ‘Santa Rally’

Goldman Sachs projected a ‘Santa rally’ in the final days of December, driven by record inflows into U.S. stocks and expectations of further interest rate cuts.

3. European Central Bank Maintains Rates

The ECB decided to keep interest rates steady, focusing on supporting the Eurozone economy amid mixed economic signals.

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