Forecasting market related events with consistent accuracy is nearly impossible, but that doesn’t make it any less entertaining.
Making or consuming forecasts for the sake of entertainment is relatively harmless, but using forecasts to make investment decisions is problematic.
For many years, the CFA Society of St. Louis held an annual forecasting contest among its members. Each year I would spend a day during the final week of December in front of my Bloomberg terminal doing research for my entry.
Each year I found myself wondering what others were guessing. (Note that I’m saying a bunch of CFA Charterholders doing research were “guessing” and not “predicting.”)
That’s when I had the idea to create an annual outlook contest of my own, but it’s taken several years to get my act together and execute.
Here’s How The Survey Will Work
Here is a link where you can submit your official entry.
The winner will receive a $500 Amazon gift card. Entries without a valid email can’t win because I’ll have no way to send you the prize.
The winner will be determined by a simple weighted ranking of each prediction. For example, if 100 people enter and someone has the closest to correct prediction in a particular category, they will receive 100 points for that category. In the same example, the person with the worst prediction in that category will receive 1 point.
The 2022 Outlook Survey will be open from now until some point in January.
Here are the questions along with some basic information to help inform your response:
1. The S&P 500 will have a total return of ____% in 2022.
2. The 10-Year Treasury yield will be _____% on December 31, 2022.
3. The price of oil will be $______ on December 31, 2022.
4. The price of gold will be $______ on December 31, 2022.
5. The price of Bitcoin will be $_______ on December 31, 2022.
6. The best performing (by total return) U.S. mega cap stock will be:
- Apple (AAPL)
- Microsoft (MSFT)
- Amazon (AMZN)
- Facebook (FB)
- Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)
- Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)
- Nvidia Corp (NVDA)
- Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRK.B)
- JP Morgan Chase & Co (JPM)
7. The best performing sector in the S&P 500 will be:
- Information Technology
- Health Care
- Financials
- Consumer Discretionary
- Communications Services
- Industrials
- Consumer Staples
- Energy
- Utilities
- Real Estate
- Materials
8. The worst performing sector in the S&P 500 will be:
- Information Technology
- Health Care
- Financials
- Consumer Discretionary
- Communications Services
- Industrials
- Consumer Staples
- Energy
- Utilities
- Real Estate
- Materials
9. The best performing asset class will be:
- U.S. Stocks (as measured by Russell 3000 Index)
- Developed International (as measured by MSCI EAFE Index)
- Emerging Market Stocks (as measured by MSCI Emerging Markets Index)
- Fixed Income (as measured by Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Index)
10. The Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2022 will be:
- 0.00% to 0.25%
- 0.25% to 0.50%
- 0.50% to 0.75%
- 0.75% to 1.00%
11. Inflation (as measured by CPI) for 2022 will be:
- Less than 3%
- Between 3-5%
- Between 5-7%
- Greater than 7%
12. The biggest decline the S&P 500 will experience during 2022 will be:
- 5% or less
- 5-10%
- 10-20%
- 20% or more
13. Following the 2022 midterm elections, Congress will be controlled by:
- Democrats
- Republicans
Submit Your Response Now
Again, here is the link to submit your responses.
Good luck!
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